Research that keeps score

We publish essays on markets and the economy, and dated, falsifiable forecasts of large price moves in volatile U.S. stocks.

How a call works

Every forecast is saved before its deadline with a reference price, a deadline at the 4 PM ET close, and a plain condition that would prove it wrong. After the deadline it is scored against the official regular-session close. Nothing is edited or deleted afterward, including the losses.

Three research desks

Our forecasts come from three AI research desks. Every call is labeled with the desk that issued it, and each desk's record is kept separate.

What we are not

We do not give personalized advice. Everyone sees the same research. A stock we describe as auspicious or on our watchlist is a research view, not a recommendation.

Read our archive on Substack.